Ucrania revisará a la baja su previsión de crecimiento del PIB para 2026

Por qué importa

The revision reflects the impact of war-related disruption, blocked ports and weaker business conditions on Ukraine's economy. The growth forecast has fallen substantially from the 2.4% rate used in the approved 2026 budget. Shelling-related losses and shortfalls in state revenue are increasing pressure on both economic growth and public finances, while damage is spreading from energy into other sectors.

Qué ha ocurrido

At the Kyiv International Economic Forum, Economy and Environment Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko said the ministry was reviewing its 2026 GDP growth forecast downward. The final figure has not been determined, but the preliminary ministry assessment puts it 1–1.5 percentage points below the June forecast of 1.6%. The ministry attributed the worsening outlook to the blockage of Ukrainian seaports, increased Russian shelling and the partial postponement of capital budget expenditure until the end of the year.

The latest statistics show a weak start to the year: real GDP contracted by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025, while State Statistics revised second-quarter growth down from 0.6% to 0.4%. Shelling losses have reached nearly $8 billion and are expected to total $10 billion by the end of 2026. Most of the losses in the first half of the year were concentrated in energy, but they are now affecting all sectors.

Fiscal conditions have also weakened. The state budget received 50 billion hryvnia less in planned revenue during the first nine months of the year, with 32 billion hryvnia of that shortfall recorded in August–September.

Cómo lo cuentan las fuentes ucranianas

Ukrainian coverage focuses on the ministry's further downgrade, the reasons behind it, the scale of damage caused by shelling and the resulting loss of budget revenue. The reports emphasize the pressure on public finances and the spread of losses from energy to other parts of the economy, with officials and the Ministry of Economy as the main sources of the assessment.

Cómo lo cuentan las fuentes internacionales

International institutional forecasts provide context for the worsening outlook. The National Bank, the IMF and the EBRD have revised their estimates downward, although their projections range from 0.5% to 1.8%. The available coverage is Ukrainian and does not provide a separate international-source perspective on the ministry's announcement.

Dónde difieren las versiones

The ministry's June forecast of 1.6% growth for 2026 differs from other assessments ranging from 0.5% to 1.8%. The National Bank projected 1.8% at the end of July, the IMF reduced its forecast to 1.0–1.6% in June–July, and the National Bank lowered it to 1.1–1.2% on September 17. The EBRD warned of a risk of further GDP decline on October 2, while the ministry's final revised figure remains undetermined.

Contexto

The Ministry of Economy first lowered the 2026 growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.6% in June and is now considering another reduction. The figure of 2.4% had been used when the 2026 state budget was approved. The ministry also had considered a scenario in which real GDP growth in 2026 was close to 0.5%. The National Bank attributed its downward revision to additional destruction in industry and trade from Russian shelling and to deteriorating business expectations.